Your analysis of Breaking4 is the best I have read. Super job! In addition, I wished we had some physiologic monitors on Faith- because before the start she looked incredibly anxious and expectation were so high. I think her anxiety at the start was eating into her kick at the end. I agree with you she would have been better off as part of a bigger event with a full stadium. Running by oneself against the clock is always harder than runner against competitors. Given that she did fantastic!
Alison, your post and Steve Magness's YouTube video were the best pieces I've read on Kipyegon's attempt to break 4.
Magness made the key point that men who run under 4 are almost invariably capable of running 1:52 in the 800 - which no woman has ever done! And that the plan to run each lap successively faster doesn't remotely resemble how sub-4s are typically run: slightly faster first lap, settling for two laps, and kicking like mad in the last lap.
Btw, I haven't seen any mention that when men broke 4 they raced the mile a LOT. I don't see how that can't make a difference.
Thanks for actually offering some analysis of the Kipyegon event! Wonderful writeup!
I've seen a bunch of people make the 1:50-low 800m argument. It's entirely possible that the woman who eventually does this needs to be able to run 1:52. But I haven't made that argument myself because I've wondered if any women who do this might have a slightly different speed profile. Not a great example because the distances are so different, but kind of like how the only female sub-2:10 marathoner does not run as fast at 5K, 10K, and the half marathon as sub-2:10 men generally do.
Great point about different speed profiles. Hadn't thought about it, and that's a bit odd because I once paid a lot of attention to it. In the mid to late 70s, Ernst van Aaken, Joan Ullyot, and others argued that women were better suited than men to long distances such as the marathon. I found their articles alarmingly free of evidence, and I wrote more than my share of letters to editors that included data I calculated on women's performances as a percentage of men's for different distances. I usually signed off by saying women's events were still too undeveloped to know whether they were better suited than men to long distances. Well, women's distance events are no longer undeveloped, so maybe it's time to look at those speed profiles again!
As always, your reflections on Breaking 4 are incredibly well thought out, fair, measured and (to me) accurate. I honestly don’t know why they even tried this other than a publicity stunt to try to get female runners to overlook their past transgressions towards their contracted athletes…
Appreciate your take on the sub-4 event. Really well thought out and broken down. Dumb question, what were the pacers in the back doing? Like, did having the women behind her really do anything? Or was that just to get more people involved?
According to this National Geographic article, "The rear pacer pushes air into the back of the runner, propelling her ever so slightly forward, a phenomenon seen in stock car races." Until it came up in Breaking4 discussions, I had never heard that having someone running behind you could provide assistance in that way. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/faith-kipyegon-record-running-nike
Your analysis of Breaking4 is the best I have read. Super job! In addition, I wished we had some physiologic monitors on Faith- because before the start she looked incredibly anxious and expectation were so high. I think her anxiety at the start was eating into her kick at the end. I agree with you she would have been better off as part of a bigger event with a full stadium. Running by oneself against the clock is always harder than runner against competitors. Given that she did fantastic!
Alison, your post and Steve Magness's YouTube video were the best pieces I've read on Kipyegon's attempt to break 4.
Magness made the key point that men who run under 4 are almost invariably capable of running 1:52 in the 800 - which no woman has ever done! And that the plan to run each lap successively faster doesn't remotely resemble how sub-4s are typically run: slightly faster first lap, settling for two laps, and kicking like mad in the last lap.
Btw, I haven't seen any mention that when men broke 4 they raced the mile a LOT. I don't see how that can't make a difference.
Thanks for actually offering some analysis of the Kipyegon event! Wonderful writeup!
I've seen a bunch of people make the 1:50-low 800m argument. It's entirely possible that the woman who eventually does this needs to be able to run 1:52. But I haven't made that argument myself because I've wondered if any women who do this might have a slightly different speed profile. Not a great example because the distances are so different, but kind of like how the only female sub-2:10 marathoner does not run as fast at 5K, 10K, and the half marathon as sub-2:10 men generally do.
Great point about different speed profiles. Hadn't thought about it, and that's a bit odd because I once paid a lot of attention to it. In the mid to late 70s, Ernst van Aaken, Joan Ullyot, and others argued that women were better suited than men to long distances such as the marathon. I found their articles alarmingly free of evidence, and I wrote more than my share of letters to editors that included data I calculated on women's performances as a percentage of men's for different distances. I usually signed off by saying women's events were still too undeveloped to know whether they were better suited than men to long distances. Well, women's distance events are no longer undeveloped, so maybe it's time to look at those speed profiles again!
I do know Nike did not win back this female with this event. They probably never will. I would much rather support other brands.
As always, your reflections on Breaking 4 are incredibly well thought out, fair, measured and (to me) accurate. I honestly don’t know why they even tried this other than a publicity stunt to try to get female runners to overlook their past transgressions towards their contracted athletes…
Appreciate your take on the sub-4 event. Really well thought out and broken down. Dumb question, what were the pacers in the back doing? Like, did having the women behind her really do anything? Or was that just to get more people involved?
According to this National Geographic article, "The rear pacer pushes air into the back of the runner, propelling her ever so slightly forward, a phenomenon seen in stock car races." Until it came up in Breaking4 discussions, I had never heard that having someone running behind you could provide assistance in that way. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/faith-kipyegon-record-running-nike